Sanitary and statistical aspects of forecasting prolongation of life of the population

According to the forecasts, made by the demographic division of the United Nations, during 1975-2000, the average life expectancy will increase in all regions of the globe, however, the estimated rate of increase will be different. In those countries that currently have reached a high level of longevity, the increase of this index will be less pronounced than in countries with relatively low levels of longevity (table. 33). This situation can be explained by the fact that as it approaches the upper limit corresponding to the potential of the species life span of man, each subsequent level is won with great difficulty.
If the group is more developed regions the increase in life expectancy over the 1970-2000, will be approximately 3 years, while in developing countries - 6 years. In the more developed regions by 2000, the average life expectancy will be about 74 years in less developed - 64 years, the maximum amount will reach 75 years (Western Europe)and the minimum is only 54 years (West and Central Africa).
In the Soviet Union during those 13 years this index can vary from 70.5 years to 73 years, ie :2.5 years, in North America (Canada, USA) - for 2 years. The increase, as before, will Mainly take place not due to the expansion of the limits of the actual duration of life in old age, and due to some further reduce deaths at younger ages.
In order to clarify the maximum possible increase of the upper boundary of mass longevity as a result of changes relevant socio-economic and socio-hygienic conditions used mortality tables for reasons 1. As the data in different tables, liquidation of mortality from cardiovascular diseases could increase the average life expectancy for 4-8 years, from malignant neoplasms - 2-3 years, from injuries - for 1,5 years. Assuming such a situation would have been able to rid mankind of deaths in all diseases and all people would die a natural death, and then an overall increase in average life expectancy does not exceed 10-15 years (20% of current). In this regard, we will give the most complete calculations published by M. S. Poor 2 (tabl).
Noteworthy calculations are carried out on materials of mortality for 1970-1972, (Rosset, 1976)3, which show, what would be the dynamics of the average life expectancy in Poland, if there were no cases of death in children, young or middle age (table. 35).
It should be emphasized that the data is hypothetical. Their practical implementation at this stage is rather problematic, as it requires a very serious sum basis and for a long time.
A prominent Soviet demographer B. C. Urlanis (1962) found that the most probable increase of life expectancy of the population up to 90 years.

1. Summarized data calculated by various authors: C. A. Nesterov (1962), Krasnodar, A. L. Ostapenko, G. P. Isaeva (1974) - for the Primorsky Krai, L. E. Darkim (1963)-in the Union republics, K. Yu. Shaburov (1972)in England and Wales, Felirose (1958, 1975) - Poland Wander (1976)-Germany and others
2. Poor M. S. Demographic processes and projections of population health. M., 1972, 303 C.
3. Rosset E. Az elettartam alakurasa es perspektiva. - "Demografia", 1976, v. XIX, Evf. 1, s. 11-43.