Forecast epidemiological

Forecast epidemiological is to predict the epidemic situation in a certain area, based on continuous study and analysis of the various factors affecting the development or extinction of the epidemic process.
Factors that matter most in the preparation of epidemiological forecast.
Dynamics of morbidity concrete nosological form for many years (periodic UPS and downs, the age of the patients and so on).
Seasonality - the severity of seasonal rises, the coincidence in time with typical curve in the incidence specific to this nosological forms, seasonal increases in morbidity among different age groups, etc.
Description of the living conditions of the population - migration processes, population density, the sanitary condition of settlements, housing and child care, food and water consumption.
The immunity of the population is immune layer in respect of this nosological forms, the availability of effective vaccines and the quality of organization and holding of immunization.
Natural foci - in respect of natural focal diseases need to know the boundaries of natural foci, to consider the dynamics of the number of animals (rodents), the carriers of activators of this infection and vectors, availability and limits the spread of the epidemic.
Knowledge of infectious diseases in foreign countries gives reason to anticipate the possibility of introduction of an infectious disease.
State of health. The quality of sanitary, prophylactic and anti-epidemic work largely determines or, on the contrary, excludes the possibility of escalating single (sporadic) diseases in epidemic or epidemic outbreak.
Daily analysis of epidemiological data on a specific territory, taking into account all factors affecting the intensity of the spread of infectious diseases is the basis for the compilation of epidemiological forecast, and therefore targeted plans of preventive measures.

Epidemiological forecast is to predict possible changes of epidemiological situation on a certain territory, based on the systematic study and analysis of various factors influencing the development and extinction of the epidemic process. Forecast epidemiological needed for evidence-based planning of preventive and anti-epidemic measures for a certain period of time or for the period of the forthcoming economic and organizational operations (the arrival of large numbers of workers for new buildings; settlers at the new place of residence; the period of mass agricultural work; the departure of children in summer camps and cottages; the conducting of mass public events etc).
Among the many factors relevant to the formation of epidemiological forecast, first of all, consider the following.
Morbidity of infectious diseases in previous years, especially in times that are appropriate in this upcoming year. This may be a typical annual rise of certain diseases in a specific period of the year in the area, the frequency of some infectious diseases. Important data on the prevalence of diseases with a chronic course and the number of identified bacterial plankton and patients, and about the characteristics of selected pathogens. Comparison of the number of survivors selected infectious diseases, the number of identified bakterionositelej, the average value of carriage for this disease in percent presumably allows to determine the number of undiagnosed media and evaluate their epidemiological significance.
The seasonality of certain infectious diseases highest morbidity of population in the course of the year, coinciding with the time of the lighter the implementation of the mechanism of transmission, more frequent exacerbations of chronic infectious diseases, seasonal changes sanitary conditions of life and nutrition of population, seasonal increase the contact of the population with contaminated water bodies, mass breeding of flies; seasonal changes of physiological reactivity of human organism and fluctuations in the level of its non-specific resistance. Account peculiarities of seasonal rises diseases for previous years and listed the cause may give certain materials for the forecast.
The influence of climatic factors. It is known that the cold or cool weather during the summer is accompanied by a significant reduction of diseases intestinal infections (dysentery, typhoid fever, epidemic hepatitis), which is associated with almost complete termination of breeding flies, a sharp decrease of contact of the population with water, limitation of water consumption, etc., In the hot summer is opposite. Thaws in winter are often accompanied by outbreaks of intestinal infections due to pollution of water reservoirs, wells and other small water sources. Records of meteorological data, especially long-term meteorological forecasts, is of great importance for the prediction of epidemiology.
Data about the state of immunity of the population to the most widespread diseases produced by accounting had been ill with a disease that leaves a long-lasting immunity, vaccinated during the previous year; by a wide serological surveys of the population groups most affected by those or other diseases; - taking into account all born in this area in the past year and coming from other localities. These data are an important material for discussion on the immune layer of the population in relation to one or other infectious diseases.
Information about the sanitary condition of settlements, the status of cleaning, removal of rubbish, trash, garbage, fighting flies, public landscaping, the nature of water and the condition of water sources, the quantity and quality of water, practically obtained by the population, etc. must be taken into account in the forecast epidemiological and planning of mitigation measures during normal conditions of the settlement, and in conducting business and social events.
One should not neglect the information on sanitary and cultural level of the population.
Population migration. For epidemiological forecast is very important to take into account the mass arrival in this city, state construction workers, settlers and other people in connection with the possibility of bringing their infectious diseases. Among the arrivals can be bakterionositeli. If people arrive in Outback areas, account for the possibility of appearance among them natural focal diseases. If people arrive from abroad, sometimes there is a possibility of delivery of especially dangerous diseases. In all cases should be provided special medical and organizational measures and created quite satisfactory conditions of shelter, food and medical care arriving people.
The endemicity areas, depending on the availability of natural foci of infection (viral, parasitic and other diseases), the sanitary condition of settlements, nature, water supply, sanitary and cultural level of the population, etc. also allows you to anticipate certain possible changes in the epidemic situation. Also consider the possibility of introduction of diseases from endemic area in a place free of these diseases.
Enzooticness area is characterized by the presence of natural foci infections, peculiar to wild or domestic animals, which they can pass on to people. For epidemiological forecast is set to change in the number of affected animals, epizootic among them, the frequency of abjection of infectious agents, immunization coverage and disease in humans. Of special importance may be natural foci of plague, tularemia, and viral encephalitides, brucellosis, anthrax, ricketsiosis, leptospirosis and other
Great value for epidemiological forecast has the status of health in the district, city, region: state hospital and polyclinic chain, the number of beds in infectious hospitals and departments, security of medical personnel, specialists of high qualification; the level of training of doctors of the General medical network for infectious diseases; state San.-the disease. stations, staffing of their specialists, state laboratories, provision of disinfectants, disinfection installations, sanitary inspection rooms, ambulances to evacuate infectious patients, etc.